Insightful Leadership and the Ukraine War

The new normal is #Disruption, and the war in #Ukraine is a huge global disruption. As my new book Insightful Leadership details, some Disruptions beget Tipping Points that go on to become Paradigm Shifts.

I believe the Ukraine war is a Disruption that has become a Tipping Point that will beget multiple #ParadigmShifts. Those Paradigm Shifts will have globally significant implications on food, energy, metals, politics, economies, and of course the millions of people directly impacted by the fighting. According to the Insightful Leadership perspective, if we have Foresight that a Disruption will reach a Tipping Point and become a Paradigm Shift, then this is an opportunity for us to study the upcoming Paradigm Shifts and to develop Insights about the future. These Insights, if properly pursued, will beget opportunities to get ahead of our competition and to achieve competitive advantage.

The Insightful Leadership process requires us to document our Foresight and then to extract from these Foresights our Insight into what will happen going forward. My experience has given me the following five factors to consider in establishing Foresights (in alphabetical order):

1. Capital: The financial and human capital required to achieve success.
2. Facilities: The buildings, equipment and machinery required to outperform the competition.
3. Leadership: The vision, strategy, insightfulness and ability to execute in volatile, uncertain times.
4. Logistics: The capability to get the right materials in the right location at the right time.
5. Technology: The power to deploy innovative best-in-class digital technology to a given situation.

So, the Foresight question with respect to the Ukraine War is: Based on these five factors, who will win? To be sure, the war is far from over, but the combination of the Ukraine people’s heroism and the steadfast support of NATO allies make Ukraine superior to Russia on all five factors. Yes, the Ukraine with the NATO allies are superior to Russia on Capital, Facilities, Leadership, Logistics and Technology. My Foresight is clear – the Ukraine will win the Ukraine War.

Given this Foresight, experts in their fields must develop Insights into their areas of expertise. Of course, you must place these Insights in the context of other paradigm shifts and watch as the situation evolves to illuminate a clear path to competitive advantage. And as Disruptions will continue, you must continually adjust this path to harness the power of new opportunities to improve and accelerate your performance.

My areas of expertise are Supply Chain and Leadership. The top four Insights into the future that come from my study of the outcome from the Ukraine War and the Disruptions of the last 12 months are:

SUPPLY CHAIN:

1. Sourcing to friendly nations that offer, with resilience, the lowest total delivered cost in combination with reshoring essential products/materials will replace the lowest manufactured cost model of the last 30 years.
2. Supply chains will be replaced by increasingly smart, autonomous digital supply networks.
3. Smart automation, robotics and drones will continue to be replace manual labor.
4. Increases in research, development, entrepreneurship and collaboration will occur across digital supply networks.

LEADERSHIP:

1. Leaders will grasp new perspectives on culture, meaningful work, recognition, retention, teamwork, collaboration and communications.
2. Leaders will prioritize career/personal balance, hybrid work, flexible hours, employee growth, adult learning, mentoring and coaching.
3. Organizations will embrace the importance of diversity, inclusion, wellness and mental health.
4. Organizations will focus on Insightful Leadership, innovation, optionality, and entrepreneurship.

Good luck on your journey. Clearly, it is no longer 2019.