Kate Sweeney, HSE Chief Statistician

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1 Kate Sweeney, HSE Chief Statistician
Latest injury trends, impact of the economy and using statistics to make the case for Health and Safety Kate Sweeney, HSE Chief Statistician SBTAF, 19 May 2014

2 Overview of the latest injury statistics

3 Fatal injuries in the workplace
Fatalities to workers reduced in 2012/13 (148 compared with 171 in 2011/12) Evidence of a levelling off in downward trend over past 5 years

4 Underlying trend in RIDDOR data
Change to Over-7-Day reporting from Over-3-Day reduced reports by approximately 30% (no suggestion that the change affected major injury reporting) Modelling suggests the underlying trend is still downwards for the whole economy series

5 Impact of the economic cycle on injury rates
Previous research has shown a pro-cyclical effect i.e. injury rates increase when the economy grows and fall when it shrinks New modelling has been undertaken to include the latest recession Confirms the previous findings with strongest effects in construction and manufacturing

6 Injury rates by job tenure
Injury rate for those in post for less than 6 months three times as high as rate for more experienced workers Same effect seen across all sectors (Labour Force Survey, 2006/07-10/11)

7 Does this mean the recovery will reverse injury trends?
Some upward pressure expected but difficult to quantify the likely impact Best estimate is that 10-15% of the falls seen in injury rates over the latest recession were due to the economic cycle (closer to 20% for construction) Hence 85-90% of the reduction was NOT due to the recession i.e. there is still an underlying downward trend

8 Making the case for intervention

9 Three key drivers for intervention on health and safety
Moral Case Economic case Legal Case

10 The Moral Case All workers have a fundamental right to work in an environment where risks to health and safety are properly controlled. [Health and safety Strategy of GB]

11 The Moral Case – how are we doing?
Over the last decade, on average each year circa: 200 workplace fatal injuries workplace injuries resulting in more than 7 days absence premature deaths from occupational disease new cases of work-related illness

12 The economic case - What is the economic impact of illness and injury?
Individual Employer Government Lost working time Lost income/production  Production disturbance Admin costs Other incurred financial costs eg healthcare costs, compensation, legal costs Monetised value of pain grief and suffering

13 Statistics about lost working time
Data on days lost are available from the Labour Force Survey Respondents report the actual duration of their absence and this is converted to full-time equivalents In 2011/12, around 27.0 million working days were lost in total, 22.7 million due to work-related illness; 4.3 million due to workplace injuries. equivalent to around lost work years

14 Trends in working days lost
The number of working days lost has fallen over the last decade reflects the fall in illness and injury case numbers Estimated working days lost due to work-related incidents Note: average sampling variability +/- 9% on the total

15 Average days lost per incident
More days taken (on average) for a case of ill health than an injury

16 The HSE cost model HSE analysts have developed a model to monetise the cost of work-related illness and workplace injury The model aims to reflect the economic costs of injuries and common ill health conditions arising from current working conditions The model estimates both financial costs (monetary costs) and non-financial costs (monetary values given to individuals’ ‘pain, grief and suffering’) Costs are apportioned between individuals, employers and government

17 HSE cost model - inputs Incidents Costs Fatal injuries
Non-fatal injuries (measured by LFS) New cases of work-related illness (LFS) Costs Wide range of sources for information on financial costs e.g. ONS surveys on earnings, NHS data on treatment costs etc

18 HSE Cost model - results
Cost in 2010/11 is estimated at £13.8bn (2011 prices) £8.4bn illness; £5.4bn injury Big cost – but how big is big? Cost of road casualties - £15bn in 2010 NHS England budget 2013/14 - £95bn 2012 floods cost UK economy £600m

19 Who bears the cost? More than half the cost in borne by individuals
Breakdown of costs to society by cost bearer, 2010/11

20 How do the costs break down?
Largest factor is pain, grief and suffering

21 Estimated cost has fallen around £2.5bn since 2006/07
Recent trends Estimated cost has fallen around £2.5bn since 2006/07 Total cost of workplace injuries (including fatalities) and ill health in Great Britain, 2006/07–2010/11 (2011 prices)

22 The economic case – statistics to quantify the economic impact
Can also estimate unit or ‘per case’ costs Used for policy appraisal Overall Unit cost / Appraisal value Unit cost to Employer Workplace Fatal Injury £1,576,000 £138,000 Reportable injury £23,500 £3,700 Non-reportable injury £700 £80 Ill health £16,700 £4,000

23 Find out more Statistics website Cost information Days lost tables